At the third republican debate, the candidates were asked a military question about “whether the United States has enough ships to deter, and if necessary defeat, a Chinese invasion of Taiwan?” and “where are we going to get the money to build such ships?” and even “what kind of ships would you build?” Those are specific questions – one I don’t think the candidates were prepared for, which is why many of the answers were rehearsed statements about “supporting Taiwan” or “fighting China at home” or attacking one another. The most direct answer was given by Governor Christie who asserted that “nuclear submarines are the best deterrence against China.” Fair enough, these are candidates for president after all, not naval military experts. But we should expect our candidates for president to be well read enough about history to know that the better answer is to draw from the Reagan Administration’s fight against the Soviet Union.
Firstly, a rebuttal:
“Mr. Moderator, how do you even know that the answer is more ships? What if the most effective means of military deterrence against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is instead low-cost weapons systems that prioritizes our ability to destroy must more expensive aircraft and ships? Did you know that this strategy was very successful in the Reagan Administration?”
Secondly, a brief history lesson:
“While President Reagan was famous for increasing the United States’ defense budget and forcing the Soviet Union to also spend heavily, his administration did not just outspend the Soviet Union, it developed ‘cutting edge weapons systems based on unique technologies that could outmatch anything the Kremlin wielded, no matter how much more the Soviets spent and built.1 Reagan’s Defense Department ‘exploited opportunities to impose disproportionate costs on the USSR over the long term’ and ‘identified areas of comparative U.S. advantage and used them to exploit areas of comparative Soviet weakness or disadvantages.’”2
Thirdly, keep the audience engaged, provide concrete examples:
“Creative technologies abounded. For example, the Soviet Union was known for its massive tank arsenal. Matching such armor an ocean away would have been cost-prohibitive for the United States and strategically imprudent. Instead, the United States ‘developed ‘tank-killer’ aircraft like the A-10 Thunderbolt II jet and the AH-64 Apache helicopter.’3 Other innovations, like the B-1 and B-2 stealth bombers evaded Soviet radar and American submarines were drastically better at evasion and detection than the much larger Soviet submarine fleet.”
Bring the answer full circle to today:
“Today the United States can mimic similar policy to counter the power projection capabilities of the Chinese navy. The answer isn’t just to build more ships, deploy them across the Pacific, and directly match the Chinese Navy ship for ship. The answer is to develop ‘ship-killer’ technologies like kamikaze sea and air drones. Not only are these technologies cheaper and quicker to manufacture, but they can also be deployed to Taiwan covertly or even overtly depending on whether we want China to know Taiwan has such capabilities.
Thankfully, we have already started. Having seen the success from arming Ukraine with drones and stinger missiles that severely increase the costs for the Russian military, the Pentagon recently delivered stinger missiles to Taiwan. So instead of only focusing on very expensive and time-consuming ships, we can deter China from invading Taiwan by remembering the creative lessons from the Reagan Administration.”
Finally, remember a key law of history as coined by historian H.W. Brands:
“We know that ‘sooner or later, countries get the foreign policy they can afford.’ By continuing to focus on developing cutting-edge technologies that are vastly cheaper than ships and aircraft, the United States can chip away at Chinese advantages in the region, rendering an invasion of Taiwan unaffordable and militarily impracticable. Take that for an answer, Mr. Moderator.”
Inboden, William, The Peacemaker Ronald Reagan, the Cold War, and the World on the Brink, Dutton, 2022, pg. 67
Krepinevich, Andrew, and Barry Watts, The Last Warrior: Andrew Marshall and the Shaping of Modern-American Defense Strategy, New York: Basic Books, 2015, 130, 154-155.
Inboden, William, The Peacemaker Ronald Reagan, the Cold War, and the World on the Brink, Dutton, 2022, pg. 68.